$9992.HK: Pop Mart’s Labubu Decline Accelerates
Labubu Trend Exhaustion: Two-Month Update with Accelerating Downside
Paradox Intelligence published the original warning and bearish analysis on Pop Mart two months ago, highlighting the Labubu trend’s exhaustion through data. The short thesis has played out as expected, with the stock down 25% since the call. Our new updated data confirm the decline has accelerated, reinforcing the thesis of a fading fad and structural vulnerabilities.
The Declining Trend
Pop Mart ($9992.HK or ADR $PMRTY), founded in 2010 and based in Beijing, dominates the collectible blind box market through its viral Labubu character. What started as a collectible craze has followed the predictable path of scarcity-driven hype to market saturation and consumer fatigue. Labubu’s cultural peak in July 2025 now looks distant. Recent data across search, social, resale, and traffic channels shows consistent downward momentum, with no signs of reversal.
Paradox Data Analysis
Search Intelligence Decline
Search Trends data for “Labubu” reveals sharp month-over-month drops, building on the 43% two-month decline noted in the original report. This points to sustained loss of consumer interest.
Social Media Momentum Decline
TikTok #Labubu views have weakened further, extending the 11% drop from peak observed in September:
Fewer views signal reduced creator and user engagement, a key leading indicator for collectible trends.
E-commerce and Resale Market Collapse
Average Labubu resale prices have fallen to $46, down from $50 in September and 26% below the $62 peak. Secondary market units sold dropped to 896 as of November 8, a 53% decline from 1,890 in September and 81% from the peak of 4,841.
These figures reflect collapsing secondary demand, often a precursor to primary market weakness.
Business Impact Analysis
Pop Mart remains heavily exposed, with Labubu and related products likely accounting for over 60% of revenue. The accelerating drops in interest translate directly to risks:
Revenue Concentration: A single-character dependency leaves little buffer as demand evaporates.
Margin Compression: Falling resale values and lower volumes force discounts or heavier promotions to clear stock.
Inventory Risk: The blind box model ties up capital in unsold units, raising the potential for write-downs and cash flow strain. Competitors, such as Miniso with its Wakuku line, continue to capture share in the shrinking segment.
Investment Thesis
The short opportunity persists and strengthens. Alternative data provides early confirmation of fundamentals that Wall Street metrics lag. As the Labubu cycle matures into decline, Pop Mart’s valuation (still pricing in growth) faces repricing toward a standard toy company with cyclical challenges. The stock’s 25% drop since the original call validates the arbitrage between leading indicators and market recognition.
Catalysts for Further Decline:
Management guidance on inventory buildup, promotional spending, or product pivots.
Continued deterioration in consumer interest.
Gains by competing products fragmenting the market.
Holiday season success.
The primary risk remains a data backed rebound in consumer interest, but current trends show no such reversal. Paradox Intelligence will monitor for updates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.